But another part of this anxiety is an honest evaluation of the team's play to date, which has been in most cases gutty but not especially good. It's also an evaluation of the injury situation going forward; lots-o banged up bodies.
(Tangent: speaking of injuries, am I the only one a little bothered by the relative inattention to Michael Boulware's concussion? He'll likely play this Sunday. Perhaps this is salient to me because I went to the U of Arizona for grad school. Current starting QB Willie Tuitama suffered a second concussion last week against UCLA. A local columnist is suggesting that Tuitama not suit up for the remainder of the season. That may not be a bad idea. A brain injury is nothing to play with.)
Nobody Wins the Game in the First Quarter
One way we might deal with our anxieties is by actually taking a look back at Seattle's performance over the first four games. Fortunately, this is not a super numbers heavy blog. I mean, why have all that stuff getting in the way of perfectly good speculation and conjecture?
Fortunately, I tend to think that because the NFL season is so short compared to baseball and basketball, a quarterly look at performance in the NFL is entertaining, if not always informative. That is, 40.5 games into a baseball season or 20.5 games into an NBA season you probably know a lot more about a team than you do in the NFL after only four games. At least some of the empirical trends that emerge after four games are mirages while others are real and informative.
I thought what I'd do in lieu of handing out mindless grades--I mean, hell, I get to do that in my day job--is briefly discuss the first quarter progress on five key questions facing the team prior to the start of the season.
1. Can Seattle/Shaun Alexander avoid the [INSERT NAME HERE] curse?
Progress (Seattle): Satisfactory
Progress (Alexander): Incomplete but not looking good
A fast start has helped Seattle, for the most part, avoid much discussion of the "Super Bowl Loser's Curse". Many if not most pundits and prognosticators expected Seattle to win the NFC West. So it doesn't appear that many people thought Seattle would be impacted by it. (Hard to find any of those people that were picking Arizona to win the West now, huh?) Of course, the fourth quarter versus the Giants and then that next game against that one team sent Seattle limping literally and figuratively into the bye week. Despite the loss, nothing is out of reach for Seattle that was within reach two weeks ago.
On the other hand, the "370 Carries Curse" did rear its ugly head, looking astonishingly like Cardinal defensive back Antrel Rolle. The magic number of carries for a running back, according to Football Outsiders, is 370. At or beyond that point expect to see sharply diminished performance in the following season, often due to injury but sometimes just rapid decline. Alexander ended last regular season with exactly 370 carries. So, although Rolle's unflagged "horse collar" tackle on Shaun Alexander in week two helped turn a mere bone bruise into a non-displaced fracture, his "not quite himself" performances may suggest real decline and not only injury. At any rate, he is injured and I strongly suspect this injury is a bit like the dreaded "high ankle sprain" in the sense that it will be difficult to provide an accurate ETA for return. The fracture must heal sufficiently to handle the repetitive stress and pounding of football without re-fracturing. Who knows when that will happen? So, plan on Mo Morris being the guy but hope Alexander gets back in the next few weeks.
2. Will the offensive line perform well without Steve Hutchinson?
Progress: Below expectations but likely to improve (lingering problems may suggest decline)
The easy thing to do is to blame the poor offensive line play on the absence of Steve Hutchinson. So, not surprisingly, this is what much of the national football media has done. Perhaps the only thing less surprising than the offensive line missing Hutch is the offensive line missing Floyd Womack due to injury.
Having said that, the first thing to note is that Seattle's offensive lines have frequently struggled with Hutch during the first quarters of the seasons. Remember, being dominated up front by Henderson and Stroud in last year's season opener? Add to that the personnel changes made necessary by Womack's absence, along with the lingering injuries to Walter Jones and Sean Locklear, and it's easy to see why the unit has yet to find a rhythm or establish a consistent quality of play. Seattle has also seen some good-to-exceptional defensive fronts in the first quarter. All four opponents have at least one recent Pro Bowl player on the front four. So the point is that we don't need to overreact to the line's sluggish start. It's not a surprise that the team has needed to rely on the defense through the first part of the season.
Going forward, this unit has too much talent to play as poorly as it did in that city that begins with a C ends with an o and has a "hicag" in the middle. Nonetheless, in my mind the lingering issue is that we may be staring in the face of irreversible decline from Robbie Tobeck and Chris Gray. (I raised this as a possibility in the pre-season.) The early reports I have read spread the blame around for the shoddy blocking thus far. However, I think this true primarily in pass protection rather than run blocking. In the two games I had a chance to watch closely (Giants, Bears) Tobeck and Gray have had real trouble getting any push in the run game. That worries me.
3. Will Nate Burleson bring big play ability to the offense?
Progress: Below expectations
My biggest issue thus far with Burleson is drops. My hope was that Burleson would complement the receiving corps by adding another pair of sure hands along with some size and run-after-catch ability. I cannot characterize him as a disappointment so early in the season. This offense is complex and it requires time to develop "chemistry" whatever that means. But, I expected better hands. To date this receiving corps has been similar to the 2004 version with its dropsies, and Burleson has had some of the most high profile. Hopefully, the addition of Deion Branch, perhaps the most sure-handed receiver in the game, will have the same impact on the unit that Joe Jurevicius seemed to have last season.
4. Will Julian Petersen bring big play ability to the defense?
Progress: Meeting expectations with room to improve
As a fan of Petersen's dating back to his Michigan State days, my impression is that he is in many respects a very similar player to Chad Brown. Furthermore, I suspected upon signing him that Seattle planned to use him similarly to Brown, as an every down, all-over-the-field linebacker rather than a blitz-happy sackmaster. (I think the team would like Leroy Hill to assume some of that role.)
5. Is the secondary good enough, despite lacking a "shut down" corner?
Progress: Below expectations, unsure about room for improvement
It is no secret that Seattle's defensive backs are the weak link on the defense. This news by itself is not disappointing, it was expected. Rather, the unit's terribly unequal performances has disappointed. This secondary cannot be left to defend without a pass rush for very long. Of course, this is also to be expected to some degree. Few secondaries in the NFL can function longer than a few beats in the absence of any pass rush. But the issue with this unit is that it will provide stretches of solid-to-excellent play followed immediately by stretches of horrid play. It must be difficult to know what to expect, even for the coaches. Right now, I don't know whether we can expect this group to function in a fundamentally different way. It's one thing to say that a secondary doesn't have a true shut down player but keeps teams from getting the big play. Seattle certainly doesn't have a shut down player, the type who will sacrifice position to gamble for the big interception. Our corners are pretty conservative, yet they still seem to get beat deep frequently.
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