Seattle at Denver: Matchups Analysis

Matchup: Special Teams (Coverage and Return Units)

Seattle coverage v Denver return. To win this game Seattle will need to make the Denver offense drive the length of the field. According to Football Outsiders (FO) Denver's average starting field position is just across its own 25, good for dead last in the league. It's easy to see why. Denver's return teams have not been especially good. FO's special teams charts have them ranked in the bottom quarter of the league on both kickoff and punt returns. Seattle's kickoff coverage has been up and down this season, which is to say Josh Brown’s kickoffs have been up and down. The Seahawks are ranked 19^th in opponent-adjusted net yards, just below the median. The punt unit however, has been outstanding, ranked 5^th. Both Plackemeier and the coverage team, after a few scary moments early on, have been very good.

Seattle return v Denver coverage. On the other side of the ledger, Seattle's return game has received a boost with the insertion of Nate Burleson on punt and kickoff returns. For the season the Seahawks have been just below the median on kickoff returns, though if Burleson's recent performance is any indication Seattle should improve. Denver's kickoff coverage has been similarly just below the median, but slightly worse than Seattle's. The story changes on punts however. Denver's punting unit is again middle of the pack, but Seattle's punt return team is ranked 5^th. Burleson has been more than solid, with a dash of spectacular.

This is probably the one area of clear advantage for Seattle. It’s difficult to see a way for them to win this game without really taking advantage in the return game to create field position.

Matchup: Offense and Defense

When Denver has the ball:

On offense, as long as Jay Cutler doesn’t play any worse than Plummer did, the Broncos have a clear advantage against Seattle’s defense, which ranks 20^th in weighted Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Denver running game is not quite what we have come to expect but is still ranked 7^th in rushing DVOA. The offensive line ranks only 18^th in adjusted line yards; but the low ranking comes despite excelling in short yardage and in pass protection, suggesting that the problem is with the running backs not the line. Tatum Bell is expected to return this week. In the passing game the Broncos gave up only 17 sacks with Plummer, whom they frequently moved around with numerous bootlegs and waggles. It’s unknown whether Shanahan will also put Cutler on the move.

Conventional wisdom is that Seattle’s defense has not been as good as last year’s version in any area except for rushing the passer—not exactly so. According to FO’s drive stats, which break down performance on a per drive basis, this unit is giving up one-quarter of a point more per drive. That comes out to around a field goal more per game. Yet, this unit is on a pace to give up virtually identical yardage as last year’s defense and has done a better job of forcing punts and fumbles this season. (It’s easy to gloss over how many big yardage plays last year’s defense gave up.) What appears to separate the two defenses is the disappearance of “big” plays, most notably interceptions. It’s not just the corners either; none of the linebackers and safeties are making timely picks.

In this game the most obvious strategy for Seattle is to take away the run early, forcing Cutler into long yardage situations. With no film on him I am certain John Marshall will want to dictate terms to Cutler as much as possible. However, the defense should not assume that Mike Shanahan will play it and have Cutler hand the ball off every first down. Shanahan apparently could have started Cutler in Denver's last game, but targeted this game for his first start. Though he would never say so publicly, it would be foolish to believe that Shanahan didn’t look at Seattle’s secondary and think, “This is the perfect secondary to start a rookie against. They don't make plays on the ball.” I would not be surprised to see Cutler throw down the field to Javon Walker early and often. To its credit, the Seahawk secondary played well against the Packers on a slick surface, especially in the first half. Seattle’s best hope is for the back seven to turn in a repeat performance. Even if it does, the defense has been less than formidable against the run. So I have to give the clear edge in this matchup to Denver.

When Seattle has the ball:

Between the second half against the Giants until the second half against Green Bay it hasn't been pretty for the Seahawk offense. (Though I should add, the way Seattle controlled the ball and imposed their will on the Raiders gets more and more impressive as time goes on.) The key for Seattle will be Mike Holmgren; you know that guy who needs to write himself a note to stick with the running game?The first half against Green Bay was an instance where Holmgren’s philosophical commitment to the pass threatened to get the better of him. Then, it appeared that he may have come to grips with the fact that the offensive line slated to start this game (from L to R: Jones, Womack/Sims, Spencer, Gray, Ashworth) is a far better run blocking than pass blocking line. Denver has been reasonable against the run for most of the season (#12 in rush DVOA and 15 ^th in adjusted line yards), but like Seattle it is a defense built to run and chase rather than slug it out. Denver can be worn down. The Broncos have been outstanding in covering #1 and #2 wide receivers. Where they have struggled in coverage is against the positions where Seattle has the most trouble catching the ball: tight end and running back.

I expect Holmgren to come out throwing the ball, as that is his modus operandi. Given this, I would like to see more sets that feature Mo Morris, with either Strong or Alexander. Alexander is virtually useless as a pass receiver but has gotten better in pass protection. Mack Strong is sure handed but Holmgren’s overuse of him has lowered his effectiveness somewhat. (Is there any team that doesn’t look for Strong on a 3^rd down draw now?) Additionally, this is a game where Jerramy Stevens should excel. We know that Hasselbeck will look for him. My hope is that Holmgren will call some easy throws to get him going. (Note to Hasselbeck: On that bootleg pass, if the defense has sniffed that one out just throw it away buddy.)

If you look at overall numbers on the season Denver looks to have a clear edge here. However, the overall stats may not be capturing all the relevant trends. Seattle is getting players healthy and acclimated while the Denver defense has struggled with many of the same issues as Seattle. In truth, Denver’s defense is basically Seattle’s with better corners but no pass rush. Seattle should move the ball against the Broncos but has been very prone to turnovers. Denver was creating turnovers in droves early in the season but seems to be in the midst of a drought. I’m going to call this matchup a toss up. Is there anyone out there who would be stunned to see something like last week where Seattle’s offense dominates one half and Denver’s defense the other?

I won't predict an outcome for the game other than to say I look for both teams will score in the high 20s, maybe 30s. Other than that I have no idea.

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