When Seattle has the ball… Everyone knows that the Seahawk offense is pretty doggone good. Football Outsiders rates Seattle’s offense second overall behind Indianapolis’ on its defense adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic (4th in passing, 3rd in rushing). DVOA is an efficiency stat that measures offensive performance relative to the league in each down/distance situation. Everyone also knows that it all begins up front with Seattle’s incredible offensive line. FO has also created a measure to rank offensive line play independent (to some extent) of skill position player performance. Adjusted line yards measures the yards per play gained by a running back that can be credited to the offensive line. Seattle’s line ranks 6th overall, with 4.49 yards per play (barely behind Washington’s 4.5 yards per play). What makes Seattle’s offensive line so special, however, is that it excels in each individual facet of line play. Seattle is #1 in short yardage conversions, second in long runs (10+ yards), and 9th in adjusted sack rate. When Seattle’s offensive line plays well everything works.
But—Washington’s defense is good; really good. It is fueled primarily by its linebackers and secondary rather than its defensive front four. Washington’s weighted defensive DVOA is 2nd overall (5th vs. the pass, 7th vs. the run, with great week to week consistency). Given Seattle’s limited offensive output in their October matchup what can the Hawks hope to exploit this time around? Well, if Seattle is to score more than 17 points it must exploit the Washington’s propensity for giving up big runs while limiting the impact of their blitzes; incompletions rather than turnovers. The aforementioned adjusted line yards statistic can also be used to assess the quality of the defensive line. Washington’s front four yields only 3.87 yards per play, good for 11th overall. However, it’s the classic case of being good in one area but not another. The Redskin line is good against short yardage runs (8th overall) but dead last at stopping long runs, which just so happen to be a Shaun Alexander specialty. Washington’s defense has excelled against the pass; so much so that the only chink in their armor is #2 receivers, against whom they’re just middle of the pack. (Note how Edell Shepherd was wide open twice in the 4th quarter of in their wildcard game. The numbers suggest that this may be more than mere coincidence. It could bode well for JJ, Engram, and D.J.)
In all, Seattle cannot expect its normal offensive numbers versus this defense. It is solid at every level and in each phase. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams compensates for a plodding defensive line that lacks a pure pass rusher with a few well-run blitzes and excellent tackling. Nonetheless, opportunities for a big play will present themselves throughout the game and Seattle cannot afford to miss them like Tampa did in the wildcard round. Some of those big plays can come in the running game, particularly on the perimeter. So Holmgren must continue to stay with it, like San Diego did in week 11. In the passing game Hasselbeck must go through his progressions, looking for the 2nd and 3rd receivers, who must be ready to play.
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