In this matchup I break down what the Hawks must do on offense, defense, and special teams to win, with an assist from the stats archive at Football Outsiders (FO). If you’re not familiar with the gang at FO they are doing some cool and innovative things with football stats. Here is a sample of their post-Wildcard weekend breakdowns of individual performances (with links to explanations for their stats) at FoxSports.com.
When Washington has the ball… Are the Redskins really as bad on offense as what we saw on wildcard weekend? For the sake of the game let’s hope not. The innovative defense-adjusted value over average statistic created by Football Outsiders suggests that the ‘Skins simply had a historically awful day against a good Tampa defense. The probability of a similarly poor performance against Seattle’s D is effectively zero. In fact, one of the few things that stand out statistically about Washington’s offense is its maddening inconsistency. Although the ‘Skins boast rushing and passing attacks ranked in the top ten of DVOA, the offense was the third most schizophrenic in the league (trailing only Minnesota and Philadelphia for highest week-to-week DVOA variance).
Why all the inconsistency? Start with the offensive line. The adjusted line yards statistic shows Washington’s and Seattle’s lines as virtual peers (with Seattle ever so slightly behind). A closer look at the particulars however reveals that Washington’s line is middle-of-the-pack in some really critical areas: short yardage running, long runs (10+ runs), and giving up sacks. Since there is no way to completely isolate offensive line play from the skill players’ performance my suspicion is that Washington’s high adjusted line yards are largely a function of Clinton Portis’ steady performance. Portis has been a solid doubles hitter in Joe Gibbs’ offense but not the homerun threat he was in Denver. Keeping with the baseball analogy Gibbs’ offense shares much in common with the 2005 Nationals; a collection of mostly singles hitters who rarely strikeout but who also don’t draw many walks or hit for much power. Fortunately for Seattle the small-ball formula that had the Nationals looking like contenders in the first half finally caught up with them after the break.
For the most part, Seattle’s game plan against Washington is pretty simple. Score first, shut down or limit Portis, and dare Washington to win with only two good receivers (WR, Santana Moss and TE, Chris Cooley). This seems a solid plan. Despite the fact that Washington does few things poorly on offense (10th in passing DVOA, 9th in rushing) it does nothing exceptionally well. Consequently, the ‘Skins don’t try to fool anyone. They aim to get a lead and sit on it. Clinton Portis had the 4th highest number of carries in the NFL this season (352). So Seattle’s defense had better come prepared for a steady diet of him. To wit, the Seahawk defensive line actually ranked first in defensive adjusted line yards, slightly ahead of Tampa Bay’s more heralded group. So Portis could be in for tough sledding again this week. Seattle will try to control the run without committing a safety in order to roll extra defenders toward Santana Moss. Additionally, Seattle must be wary of the numerous delays, screens, and drag routes Washington utilizes to get Cooley (their version of Jerramy Stevens) the ball. Seattle’s secondary should have its hands full. According to FO Seattle ranked only 19th in shutting down opposing #1 receivers and were only slightly better (17th) in defending opposing #2 receivers. To some extent injuries in the secondary (i.e., Ken Hamlin, Andre Dyson, Kelly Herndon, and John Howell) can explain part of this, but certainly not all. Seattle’s corners tend to play soft in coverage, content to take away the big play. To its credit Seattle’s defense gives up yards but really stiffens up in the red zone. This really comes through when looking at the drive stats. Seattle’s overall defensive efficiency isn’t very impressive (16th) nor is its yards allowed per drive (15th). But Seattle ranks 7th in points allowed per drive and second in TDs allowed per drive; the classic bend-don’t-break defense. In the October matchup Brunell was able to make numerous plays with his legs, buying time to convert key third downs. This time around Brunell certainly appears less mobile. Still, Seattle should use its blitz (see: Hill, Leroy) judiciously to force Brunell to throw the ball where the defense wants him to.
The Kicking Game… The teams are similarly ranked in special teams DVOA, which provides a point estimate of how each team compares to the league average on the five elements of special teams (FGs/PATs, Net Kickoffs, KO Returns, Net Punts, Punt Returns). Washington is ranked 8th and Seattle 11th in special teams DVOA but neither team appears to have a decided advantage over the other, except in the FG department. Despite all the talk about Josh Brown’s missed FG in October Seattle clearly has the better FG kicker in this matchup. That kid makes big kicks. Surprisingly, Seattle also has the better kickoff coverage unit. The ‘Skins, on the other hand, have a decided edge in kickoff returns and net punting. (Net punting is a bit of a surprise, given the shank-fest we witnessed last week.) Neither team is anything to write home about in the punt return game.
Since Washington’s offense is unlikely to convert numerous long scoring drives into touchdowns its best hope for scoring 24+ points in this game is to force turnovers and/or work a short field. The more likely of those two scenarios is for Washington to create field position in the return game, as Seattle’s offense is one of the league’s best at protecting the football. Seattle cannot afford to give away field position to Washington’s offense with poor kick coverage and their units have been solid in this regard all season.
Outlook… This is a game Seattle should win barring the unforeseen. It should not be an easy win. As I said elsewhere I do not expect Seattle to put up its normal numbers against this defense. But, I think Seattle is just a little bit better in all the matchups. Our offense is just a little too efficient to be denied all day. Our defense should, I suspect, limit the damage from both Portis and Moss. Our kicking game and coverage units are both solid, certainly not clear weaknesses. I expect the winning score to be in the low twenties. I think 25 points would almost certainly win for Seattle. (Now that I’ve written this of course the game is guaranteed to be some 40 point shootout.)
Prediction: Washington 17, Seattle 24
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