Yet the ‘Hawks, living as they do in their own glass house, are hardly in a position to throw stones, or even enjoy a little schadenfreude at the ‘Boys’ expense. Seattle has played no more than seven quarters of stellar football out of a possible 64, and just can’t win for losing with injuries and inconsistency this year. Much like last year, the injury bug has sunk its fangs in deep in the secondary; this year at cornerback. The secondary, already the obvious weak link in a mediocre defense, is now headed into a playoff game likely starting its nickel (Jennings) and dime (Babineaux) cornerbacks against a very good and very deep set of wide receivers. Any depth at corner will have to come via some creative jury-rigging with players from other positions or from off-the-street free agent pickups. And that worked out really well for us last year (see Pruitt, Etric).
If you are Holmgren and Co., what do you do? What doooo you do? As a huge Knicks fan, I have found that an important part of retaining my sanity during the Isiah Thomas years is coming to grips with simple and often obvious truths; truths that can be easy to deny. It helps set reasonable expectations and guide strategy.
Simple Truth #1: Seattle just isn’t very good this year. It happens folks. If you hadn’t noticed, teams vary wildly in their year-to-year performance in the NFL these days. It doesn’t always mean someone needs to be fired. Some years your superstars play like it, your solid players are solid, and your role players are consistent. A lot that has to go right to win in the NFL—starting with staying reasonably healthy. This leads me to…
Simple Truth #2: One playoff game—win or lose—is probably the ceiling for this team. Granted, the NFC has no flawless teams. Seattle need fear none of them. But then, none should fear Seattle either. This team gave up more points than it scored, playing according to some measures the weakest schedule in the NFL. Its underlying numbers are closer to those of a five or six win team than a nine win team.
Some may read these simple truths as an a priori excuse for a loss to Dallas. On the contrary, these truths suggest that Seattle is really playing with house money and need not be unduly burdened by unmet expectations from the regular season.
To beat Dallas, a more physical opponent on both sides of the ball, Seattle will need to play both aggressive and smart football, a combination that has eluded them for all but a handful of moments this season. To that end, I suggest that the coach’s game plan must place heavy emphasis on the following.
1. Blitz early, often, and from every angle. I am not typically a big a proponent of blitzing. A blitz-heavy defense is a bit like a batter who won’t take a walk. Most QBs have so little understanding of what a defense is trying to do to them that blitzing can inadvertently help them increase their efficiency by limiting their reads. But, in this instance Seattle has little choice. When your secondary is clearly overmatched—and it’s Terry Glenn and the tight ends whom I fear most—you must focus on beating the offensive line. From what I saw of the Dallas-Detroit game the Lions appeared to drop extra people, relying on Romo’s impatience to lead to mistakes. Seattle does not have the defensive depth to wait for Romo to do something stupid at the end of every 10-12 play drive. The defense will have to try to create turnovers rather than wait for the proverbial base on balls, which will inevitably leave open some big plays. But, if the defense can create some breaks early and play with a lead Seattle has a shot.
2. Throw downfield. Seattle will have played Dallas for the past four seasons if memory serves. Consistent throughout has been a defensive game plan where Dallas stuffs the box to take away Alexander and has the cornerbacks play tight, really sitting on the short routes. Dallas will make certain that there is a lot of traffic in the short-to-intermediate area Seattle loves to exploit. Seattle has had some success throwing the ball downfield against Dallas, and right now DJ Hackett may be the hottest WR in the game. In order to be successful, blitz pickup—and I fully expect Dallas to send lots of people—will be critical. So Shaun Alexander's blocking may be just as important as anything else he is called upon to do.
3. Win on special teams. The one area I know Parcells will pay special attention to is special teams. These are the hidden yards in every football game. Dallas has a clear advantage on offense and defense whichever way you look at seasonal numbers. However, the two teams are pretty comparable in their return and coverage units, though Seattle has more of a game breaker in Burleson and a better FG unit. Special teams (along with penalties) is one of those 50-50 areas Seattle MUST control in order to win. Note: Parcells loves to fake a punt once he gets to his own 40.
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