American Football Conference Predictions
East: New England, Miami, Buffalo, New York Jets
North: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland
South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston
West: Denver, San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland
AFC Playoff Seedings:
1. Indianapolis Colts/North Winner – Pound for pound Indy was the best team in football last year. Yeah yeah. I know I know. They weren’t the best team when it mattered most. But, some teams have to knock on the door several times and wait for an arch nemesis to die off before they can get in. (The Bulls never did vanquish the Pistons. The Pistons just got old.) New England has always been a bad matchup for Indy for a variety of reasons, but New England's star is clearly fading (though not gone) while Indy's shows few signs of burning out. Indy won’t miss Edge that much—at least not as a runner. If healthy, Joseph Addai will give the offense enough to remain elite. My big concern about Indy is that their defense requires frequent infusions of fresh talent, especially on the defensive line. Indy has not been especially attentive to the interior of the defensive line. Right now, Raheem Brock—who used to be an undersized defensive end—is listed as the starter at one tackle, backed up by an aging Corey Simon. That could be a problem if anyone in the AFC North ever manages to run the ball. (12 wins)
2. Denver Broncos/West Winner – Jake Plummer really did have an outstanding season before stinking it up against Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Perhaps the story that went underreported is that their vaunted offensive line didn’t quite live up to its billing against the Steelers either. Of all the elite offenses in the NFL Denver’s may be the hardest to gauge this upcoming season. They could duplicate their 2005 regular season but they could legitimately see some real decline too. Rod Smith has to get old eventually, right? Denver’s defense is stout enough to keep them from completely falling off a cliff but their worst case scenario is not unthinkable. Jake Plummer could revert. The offensive line’s disappearing act against Pittsburgh could be the beginning of a steep decline. Rod Smith might age right before our eyes. (11 wins)
3. Cincinnati Bengals/North Winner – Sometimes sports writers get a bit carried away with talk of character. NFL players are hired to run, hit, block, and catch—not to teach Sunday school. But where character matters in the NFL is in how teams prepare and how they deal with adversity. Given their off-season it’s hard to feel great about how this team will respond to adversity. This should be the year Cincinnati takes the next step. They have talent. They have a quartet in Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, and TJ HoushMeintkewicz that is as dangerous as any. They have one of the five best offensive lines in the league. They have a durable runner who is good in all situations. They have a secondary that creates turnovers and a stable of young, athletic linebackers. But, they also have a locker room filled with just enough knuckleheads to make them a really risky bet to take the next step. (10 wins)
4. New England Patriots/East Winner – This is the year the dynasty crumbles for good—the Pats are really old at some key positions. I just don’t see how Belichick can continue playing MacGyver, jury-rigging the defense to compensate for personnel losses with sub-par talent. Richard Seymour is the only bona fide star on that side of the ball, though Vince Wilfork could really emerge. But then again, we go through this every year with New England don’t we? The house of cards is due to come down at any moment, but then it doesn’t. Tom Brady continues to look like Tom Seaver, which is to say never bad and sometimes dominant. Lawrence Maroney is precisely the right player fit at RB platooning with Dillon and Faulk. The absence of Deion Branch (until week 10 when he reports for free agency purposes) is a serious loss but may not be devastating because of the two tight ends. New England gets to play the Jets and Bills twice, as well as the NFC North. I look for Belichick to play the NFL’s version of the Phoenix Suns on offense—super quick pace with lots of 3, 4, and 5 WR sets—to compensate for a defense that may not be very good. (10 wins)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers/Wildcard – I almost gave the Steelers the nod for the division even though I expect the Bengals to sweep them this year. I think this year’s Steelers will be more willing to chuck the ball around the field than in year’s past. That is a good thing. I’m not saying that they’re going to hire June Jones as an offensive consultant but the offense will be better equipped to play in the occasional shootout. The offense may have to because I am guessing the replacements for Kimo Von Oelhoeffen and Chris Hope will take that defense down a notch. Unlike in years past where the defensive replacements likely would have pushed the departed former starter anyway, this time Pittsburgh is filling in with guys that aren’t necessarily younger and/or more athletic. (10 wins)
6. Miami Dolphins/Wildcard – I was kinda set to plug Jacksonville into this spot based on their schedule but I just can’t buy their offensive line at all. They cannot keep Byron Leftwich upright or get consistent running. On the other hand Miami’s unit was able to produce an exceptional rushing season for Ronnie Brown without a consistent pass attack. Defensively, the Dolphins are definitely getting long in the tooth along the front four but have a nice mix of vets and youth at other positions. Also, at the end of the day their path through the AFC East should be less hazardous than Jacksonville’s through the South, though you never know how schedule strength will play out. (9 wins)
National Football Conference Predictions
East: Philadelphia, New York, Dallas, Washington
North: Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay
South: Carolina, Tampa, Atlanta, New Orleans
West: Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco
NFC Playoff Seedings:
1. Seattle Seahawks/West Winner – I like Seattle as the top overall seed for two reasons: 1. the offensive line (even without Hutchinson); 2. the defense is likely to improve on an already pretty good 2005. The offensive line will ensure that the team remains at least in the top 10 unless Hasselbeck goes down. They are not only skilled players but play with great pace. On defense Seattle doesn’t have as many household names as Carolina and Chicago but they do a superb job of keeping offenses out of the end zone. The defense was not so good on third-and-long last season, though it was pretty good on third down overall. That strikes me as the sort of thing likely to get better. So the defense should get a little better at killing drives and getting the offense even more touches. Also, don’t overlook the signing of ex-Giant kick returner Willie Ponder. Seattle led the league in 80+ yard scoring drives last season, as much a testament to woeful return men as to excellent offense. (12 wins)
2. Chicago Bears/North Winner – Chicago’s defense will probably come back down to earth slightly this year, but should still be really good. The offense almost has to take a step forward if they can get even mediocre quarterbacking from Rex Grossman, because they have a very solid offensive line. Unfortunately, their QB situation is a bit less settled than one would like to see in a Super Bowl hopeful. They have Brian Griese to provide at least league average quarterbacking should Rex Grossman falter (or more likely gets injured). Like Seattle, Chicago is most likely a year away from facing a serious challenger in the division, though Minnesota with its quality offensive and defensive lines could surprise. (11 wins)
3. Carolina Panthers/South Winner – The Panthers could be better than Seattle or Chicago and still win fewer games. They have a brutal schedule on paper, though I am not sold on the notion that the NFC South is a juggernaut division. I am not bullish on Atlanta. The key for Carolina is health, as it always is. A number of their key players on both sides of the ball routinely miss games. Steve Smith may be showing signs of last season’s overuse, already nursing a hamstring and questionable in week one. It seems almost a given that Dan Morgan, DeShaun Foster, and Kris Jenkins are going to miss some time. One thing that should give Panther fans cause for hope is that so many of their tough games are against similarly conservative, grind-it-out style teams. Cincinnati, New York, and Philadelphia may be the only teams likely to try to take Carolina out of its comfort zone with schemes that spread them out or stretch them deep. That’s a long-winded way of saying that Carolina, despite the brutal schedule on paper, matches up well with all but a small handful of its opponents this season. But why expect them to stay healthy this year? They never stay healthy. (10 wins)
4. Philadelphia Eagles/East Winner – I like the Eagles to win what some are calling the NFL’s toughest division in a bounce back season. 2005 was fluky for them in a lot of ways. But right now the Eagles have the fewest glaring holes of any East team. I already loved Reggie Brown, and the addition of Dante Stallworth enhances the value Brown already provides. For all the talk of Philly’s woes at RB, their issue really was their offensive line which was banged up. The group should be better this year. Right now, Philly is the only NFC East team not depending on big seasons from players well into their 30s—the type most likely to experience serious decline. So we should expect to see bounce back years from some of their performers while some of their rivals may be looking at declines from key players. (10 wins)
5. New York Giants/Wildcard – The Giants have made some nice additions to a defense that wore down over the course of last season. They have a quartet of exceptionally talented defensive ends. They imported the enigma that has been LaVar Arrington to pair with the consistent, dependable, and oh by the way very good Antonio Pierce. On offense the Giants like to throw the ball down the field—a lot—behind an offensive line that is quietly becoming one of the better in the conference. That Raiders-style offensive philosophy in part led to a season’s worth of uneven performances from Eli Manning. The inconsistency has plagued the offense. The team needs another big season from Tiki Barber but appears to have some faith in Brandon Jacobs, a very different kind of back, should Barber decline. In a general sense though, the Giants have a scheme and a roster that lend themselves to playing in peaks and valleys this season. I think that keeps them from winning the division. (9 wins)
6. Tampa Bay Bucaneers/Wildcard – Jon Gruden finally has the offensive line headed in the right direction now that the defense is probably on the cusp of taking a step backwards. The Bucs should be a solid-to-very good defense in 2006 but it is no longer the kind that can say to its offense, “just don’t turn it over and we’ll win it for you.” Fortunately, the offense is amassing the right kinds of assets to finally be able to contribute its fair share. The offense will ultimately go only as far as its offensive line will take it. The team’s investment in a promising pair of young linemen, Davin Joseph and Jeremy Trueblood, is wise but overdue. Right now the Bucs line has difficulty keeping its quarterback upright and its running back off the training table. I am not especially convinced that this wildcard slot will end up with Tampa. Of the likely contenders (Dallas, Atlanta, Washington, Minnesota) Tampa has in my estimation the least glaring holes but any of them could get hot. Since the NFC South and East play each other it is quite possible they may all beat each other to a pulp leaving Minnesota as the last team standing. (9 wins)
Other Wildcard Contenders – Dallas (9 wins), Minnesota (8 wins), Atlanta (8 wins). Dallas has an offensive line that was cover-your-eyes bad in 2005. They could get some improved performances but it’s a patchwork group that doesn’t run block well, playing in front of an immobile quarterback. That’s a recipe for a lot of low scores. Minnesota is good up front on both sides but they’ll need unexpected output from QB (Brad Johnson’s never stayed healthy), RB, and receivers to make a dent. Atlanta’s retooling of its run defense began and ended with signing the ancient Grady Jackson. They are my nominee for surprise disappointment—and it won’t be because of Vick.
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