In the preseason I said: …I like Seattle as the top overall [NFC] seed […] The offensive line will ensure that the team remains at least in the top 10 unless Hasselbeck goes down. They are not only skilled players but play with great pace. On defense Seattle doesn’t have as many household names as Carolina and Chicago but they do a superb job of keeping offenses out of the end zone.
What actually happened: This offensive line is rapidly transitioning from “veteran” to “old.” It has also been banged up. Chris Spencer has also developed slowly after switching positions. (Frankly, Spencer’s isn’t really all that slow. I’ve just been spoiled enough with the “plug 'em in and watch them play at a high level” development of Jones, Hutchinson, and Locklear that I have begun to expect such performances from every first time starter.) The defense has really, really missed Marcus Tubbs, who creates one-on-one matchups for other players, allowing them so much more freedom to make plays. Apart from Ken Hamlin, the back four has shuttled between mediocre and awful. Perhaps most importantly, the red zone defense is not nearly what it was last season.
Yet, here Seattle sits at 5-3 with an opportunity to all but put the clamps on the division with a win at home over St. Louis this coming Sunday. The Rams, coming off consecutive butt-whoopins by San Diego and Kansas City, are in dire need of a win to keep their hopes alive. This is, for all practical purposes, a playoff game for St. Louis. For Seattle, only slightly less is at stake. Should the Seahawks lose to the Rams the division is still in play; however a loss certainly impacts the team’s confidence going forward, especially if the defense continues giving up big play after big play. It’s one thing to lose on the road at Kansas City with no running game behind a first-time starter at QB. It’s quite another to lose at home with a chance to basically lock up a home playoff game to the only real competition in the division. It wouldn’t be fatal but it’d be worthy of a trip to the doctor's office, if not urgent care.
After eight games almost none of Seattle’s preseason goals are completely out of reach, especially considering the team’s remaining schedule. The top seed and home field throughout the playoffs is likely the Bears’ to lose. Still, in some crucial ways Seattle is positioned similarly to last year’s Steelers in that so many key players are out but numerous reserves have helped keep the team afloat. Hopefully, they can continue to do so long enough for the key guys to get healthy. The real problem with having to play backups so much is obviously that you lose depth. The likelihood that these reserves will wear down increases with each game while the costs of bringing back an injured starter too soon (along with the temptation to do it) is very high.
For the second half of the season I think I’ll stay out of the prognostication business. The NFL is far too unpredictable. But, I think there will be some critical indicators of success in the second half that will go a long way toward determining what kind of season this will be for Seattle.
1. Will the Offensive Line Gel? Perhaps the untold story about Pittsburgh’s run through the 2005 playoffs was the relatively sudden and spectacular improvement of its offensive line. A unit that was almost thoroughly dominated in its Monday Night Football matchup versus Indianapolis last season became quite good by the end of the season. We know that in seasons past Seattle’s offense has tended to sputter until the second half of the season, as the offensive line really began to gel. I expect that some improvement on the offensive line is forthcoming based on that history. (The Raiders game was certainly a step in the right direction. Remember, the Raider defense—which is a step below elite status—is not the problem with that team.) The big question facing the line is whether any expected improvement will be offset by persistent nagging injuries.
2. Will Marcus Tubbs Come Back Healthy? Tubbs is rapidly becoming the Pork Chop of the defense. On the increasingly rare occassions when he plays his impact on the defense is palatable. He’s probably a notch below Casey Hampton and Sean Rodgers in his ability to really clog up the run lanes and force backs to bounce outside, but he also provides enough pass rush to be able to play in essentially any package. Russ Davis, though an accomplished run stuffer, invites teams to pass when he’s on the field and run when he’s off. Without Tubbs the base defense is far more predictable.
3. Can Hasselbeck and/or Alexander Come Back with Enough Time to Make a Difference? The issue for both players is whether they will have enough time to return and get their timing back for a playoff push. Although Seneca Wallace has played well all things considered, Hasselbeck’s command of the offense alone ensures that he is vital to any hopes of a playoff run. He could likely play in a brace at something less than 100%. I am far less optimistic about Alexander. Broken bones heal but a repetitive stress fracture is highly likely to refracture given the pounding any NFL player takes, much less a running back. The Monday Night game restored at least some of my faith in the team's ability to mount at least a league average rushing attack.
4. Will Subtle Adjustments Work? It is difficult to make major changes to a team during a season. The personnel and the scheme are what they are pretty much. And, no one outside New Englandconsistently gets production out of street free agents. Thus, the coaching staff is trying to make subtle changes that could have big impact down the road. It will be interesting to see how certain moves play out. For example, Nate Burleson returned punts on Monday Night, which could provide big play ability we haven’t seen in the return game since Charlie Rogers. In another example, I noticed that the team has begun to mix Julian Peterson in coverage more often and Leroy Hill in the pass rush. Hill has frankly struggled in coverage thus far this season, after playing such a key role in the pass rush last year. Peterson, on the other hand, excels in coverage. Peterson can still be highly effective with fewer shots at the QB but Hill really cannot be. I think it is wise for the defense to play to Hill's strengths a bit more because you don't lose much putting Peterson in coverage. Additionally, the defense is far less predictable when pass rush comes from multiple players.
One of the (many) great things about Seattle is that nobody stops doing whatever it is they were doing just because there's a little rain outside. So, pull on your galloshes Seahawks fans. The remainder of the season promises to be like the weekend I just spent there: wet and sloppy but a lot of fun.
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